Can Roy Hibbert and the Pacers get back on top in the East? Looks like a long shot right now. (Photo by Allen Eyestone/The Post)
The Pacers spent their entire season aiming to take the top seed. The Heat approached that goal as a secondary priority, concentrating more so on staying healthy.
Both tactics have worked. As those teams hit the final week of the regular season, Miami (53-23) is one game up with six to play. The first of those is at home against Brooklyn tonight (8 p.m., TNT and Sun Sports). Indiana (53-25) has four more games, the next of which is Wednesday at Milwaukee.
The Pacers come to town Friday for the last head-to-head of the regular season and Miami could be in position to bury them. If the Heat survive Brooklyn and Wednesday’s visit to Memphis, they will be up 1.5 games on Indiana going into Friday’s game.
Which team has the better shot? Miami’s schedule is harder and Dwyane Wade’s status is uncertain with a strained hamstring, but the Pacers seem to have trouble beating anybody these days. They are 7-12 in their last 19 games and are coming off a home loss to Atlanta in which they had 23 points at halftime.
Of the Heat’s final six games, three are at home. Five of the upcoming opponents are in the playoff field or on the cusp of it.
Indiana has just one home game left and it is against mighty Oklahoma City. In addition to the Thunder and Heat, the Pacers play Milwaukee and Orlando.
With that, here’s a projection of the last leg of this race:
Heat (4-2): win vs. Brooklyn tonight, lose at Memphis on Wednesday, win vs. Indiana on Friday, win at Atlanta on Saturday, lose at Washington on Monday, win vs. Philadelphia on April 16.
Pacers (2-2): win at Milwaukee on Wednesday, lose at Miami on Friday, lose vs. Oklahoma City on Sunday, win at Orlando on April 16.
That finish would put the Heat at 57-25, two games better than Indiana’s 55-27, and give them home court advantage in the Eastern Conference. (For home court in the Finals, Miami is 6.5 games back of San Antonio, two behind Oklahoma City and one behind the Los Angeles Clippers.)
The rest of the Eastern Conference remains undetermined at this point, too.
The Heat and Pacers are assured of taking the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds
Chicago and Toronto are tied for the No. 3 seed, and the loser of that race is likely going to be the No. 4 seed because Brooklyn is 2.5 games behind both of them. They have fairly even schedules the rest of the way, and the Raptors get the tie-breaker by virtue of winning their division.
The Nets are virtually locked into the No. 5 seed, 2.5 games ahead of the Wizards.
Washington is one game up on Charlotte for the No. 6 seed, and neither of them can drop below the No. 7 seed.
Atlanta is the No. 8 seed with a two-game lead over the Knicks. New York has a brutal schedule and has almost no chance of catching the Hawks.
That would put the Heat facing 8-Atlanta in Round 1 and most likely the winner of 4-Chicago vs. 5-Brooklyn in the second round. The Pacers would go through 7-Charlotte and 3-Toronto/6-Washington.
